![]() Actually as the market pushes to the down side. JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Well, that's typically what happens when you get to the bottom, there's so much nervousness and fear but the Vix is a little bit disturbing how it doesn't go higher. SCOTT WAPNER: That would be quite a spike. I'd be happier on the short term outlook if the VIX would go above 40 which is usually a sign. Maybe this leg down is getting toward an exhaustion point the sentiment is pretty dark right now. So, yeah, it seems like a bear market to me in the way things trade with late day volume being bad and the like the best thing for the near term, I think, is that the most export sensitive stock market, South Korea, the Kospi bottomed October 29 so at least that's not pushing to new lows and emerging markets broadly are doing better because they're extremely export driven. We're actually within the lower bound or close to the lower bound of neutral in an attempt to stabilize the market. And suddenly it was, well, we have a new definition of neutral maybe. And, yeah, the Jay Powell thing was interpreted by the market as a scary thing, the fed was going to keep going a long distance further and then the market dropped over 10% and suddenly the Fed had to massage the rhetoric. JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Yes that with the USMCA thing and the Ford Motor executive, those things seemed to come together and coalesce into we've had enough. SCOTT WAPNER: That seemed to be the tipping point. Suddenly the market seemed to wake up to the fact that this was real and the next day the stock market tipped over in fact, on October 3rd, Jay Powell said we're a long way from neutral. A senior executive at ford motor said, well obviously we're going to have to raise the prices on our cars if input prices are going up. It was October 3rd when the tariffs - well, it was that USMC - whatever it's called, it's really NAFTA but it was announced we would have this change in NAFTA that would lead to a requirement that a certain fraction of car parts be made in higher costs locales which basically meant not Mexico. ![]() JEFFREY GUNDLACH: That was kind of the last straw. And then finally when they decided they weren't going to tell you how many phones they sold anymore apple gave it up. All of these things, one by one, started to roll over and come the summertime or later in the summertime you were down to the FAANGs and then you were down to two stocks it was amazon and apple and then amazon gave it up. And so did the New York Stock Exchange composite, January 26 but the Dow Jones Industrials, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500. The global stock market peaked January 26th. ![]() And one after another you start to see various sectors of the global financial markets give it up. The way it was being treated and believed in was a mania and then it crashed about a week after we met a year ago and it was at 17,500 when we were speaking right in this spot and of course now it's down below 3,500 so an 85% decline. Maybe in the end it's a good thing or the block chain technology is a good thing. This time like we talked about a year ago it was crypto, bitcoin which was truly a mania, we talked a year ago it just went up. That's kind of crazy and then we had the subprime lending with pick a pay loans back in '05 and '06 and that was kind of crazy and that went on longer than it should have. It's more about how you lead into it, how it develops and how the sentiment changes, and I think we've had pretty much all of the variables that characterize a bear market I remember going - usually something happens that really doesn't make any sense at all and I'm kind of amazed how it goes on longer than it should like back in the dotcom days when companies were being IPO'd and had no sales let alone revenues that's hard to be and they would actually explode to the upside on the IPO. I've been around over 35 years in the business and have seen a number of bear markets. People like this definition of 20% down as a bear market, but that's obviously very arbitrary. JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Well in the fullness of time, I think absolutely we'll go below that. SCOTT WAPNER: Do you think we're going to go below that? We're still about 50 points above on the S&P of the February lows. JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I think it was December 13th last year. SCOTT WAPNER: Almost a year to the day we were last with you. SCOTT WAPNER: Welcome to Los Angeles Jeffrey. The following are links to video from the interview on :, ,, , and. ![]() The following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and CNBC's Scott Wapner on CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report" (M-F 12PM – 1PM) today, Monday, December 17th. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit
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